We are living a tragedy and one should not minimize the human aspect of the event.
This being said, here are my comments as for the following days and months.
History will repeat itself. The main market drop will occur during the first day of the reopening of the North American stock markets … and we can’t do much about it. Consequently, one should hold less liquidity than too much. The Fed will be very accommodative and we will see interest rates continue to drop. I believe Americans will go on a crusade against all terrorists (whether they were directly involved or not in the attacks). This will have the effect of increasing economic activities in the US.
- My worse scenario = the markets will remain more or less at the actual level (after the reopening) and should grow starting mid-December.
- As for the US$ = if history repeats itself, the $ should weaken at first but then regain some strength.
- Gold = It is more difficult to evaluate but I am tempted to say that it should increase in value.
- Oil = Oil should increase at first (for a few days or weeks at the most) but in the end its price will be determined by supply and demand. Demand should decrease principally due to the reductions in air travel and movements of individuals.
- Sector at risk = airlines and indirectly … Bombardier.
